The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2013-14, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP.
The details of the estimates are presented below.
I ESTIMATES
OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At constant
(2004-05) prices
2. Quarterly
GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2013-14 is estimated
at ` 13.68 lakh crore as against
` 13.05 lakh crore in Q2 of
2012-13, showing a
growth rate of 4.8 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous
year.
3. The economic activities which
registered significant growth in Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2011-12 are
‘agriculture, forestry and fishing‘ at 4.6 per cent, ‘electricity, gas and
water supply’ at 7.7 per cent ‘construction’ at 4.3 per cent, ‘financing,
insurance, real estate and business services’ at 10.0 per cent and ‘community,
social and personal services’ at 4.2 per cent. The growth rates in ‘mining and
quarrying’ is estimated at (-)0.4 per cent,
‘manufacturing’ at 1.0 per cent, and ‘trade, hotels, transport and
communication’ at 4.0 per cent in this period.
Agriculture
4. According to the First Advance
Estimates of
Production of Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for
2013-14 released by the
Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 25.9.2013, production of coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds are
expected to grow by 4.9%, 1.9% and 14.9%
respectively during the Kharif season of 2013-14 as
compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif
season of 2012-13. Apart from production of kharif
crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the estimated
production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry
and fisheries.
Industry
5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial
Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity,
registered growth rates of (-) 0.1 per cent, 1.2 per cent and 8.4 per cent,
respectively in Q2 of 2013-14. The key indicators of construction sector,
namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered
growth rates of 5.9 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2013-14.
Services
6. Among the services sectors, key indicators of
railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and
passenger kilometers have shown
growth rates of 3.7 per cent and (-) 2.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of
2013-14. In the transport sector, the
sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the
civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth
rates of (-)22.1 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 0.4 per cent and 12.6 per cent,
respectively in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2012-13. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate
bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 12.0 per cent, and
15.4 per cent, respectively as on September
2013-14.
(b) At current
prices
7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in
Q2 of 2013-14, is estimated at ` 25.05 lakh crore,
as against `22.28 lakh crore
in Q2, 2012-13, showing an increase of
12.4 per cent.
8. The
wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, inland
fish, machinery & machine tools, manufactured products, electricity and all
commodities, has risen by 16.3 per cent, 35.8 per cent, 2.0 percent, 2.2 per
cent, 13.0 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2013-14, over
Q2 of 2012-13. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has
shown a rise of 10.9 per cent during Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2012-13.
II ESTIMATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES
9. GDP
at current market prices in Q2 of 2013-14, is estimated at ` 26.19 lakh crore, as against `23.17 lakh crore in Q2,
2012-13, showing an increase of 13.0 per cent. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the GDP at
market prices is estimated at ` 14.30 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as
against ` 13.54 lakh
crore in Q2 of 2012-13 showing an increase of 5.6 per cent over the corresponding
quarter of previous year. There has been
a decline in the growth of major subsidies from
97.9 percent in Q2 of 2012-13 to (-) 10.5 percent in Q2 of 2013-14. Further, the indirect tax
revenue of the central government
including customs, excise and service tax has shown a growth of 6.1 percent in Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2012-13.
III ESTIMATES
OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
10. The components of expenditure on gross
domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are
normally measured at market prices. The
aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of
market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
11. Private Final Consumption Expenditure
(PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `14.83 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as
against ` 13.49 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is
estimated at ` 8.55 lakh crore
in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 8.37 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In
terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05)
prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 56.6 per cent and 59.8 per cent,
respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.2 per cent and 61.8 per cent, respectively
in Q2 of 2012-13.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
12. Government Final Consumption Expenditure
(GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 2.89 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 2.66 lakh crore
in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at ` 1.47 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as
against ` 1.49 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In
terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant
(2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 11.0 per cent and 10.3
per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.5 per cent and 11.0 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
13. Gross
Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at ` 7.71 lakh
crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 7.16 lakh
crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices,
the GFCF is estimated at ` 4.81 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as
against ` 4.68 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In
terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant
(2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 29.4 per cent and 33.6 per cent, respectively, as
against the corresponding rates of 30.9
per cent and 34.6 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13.
14. Estimates
of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP
for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in
Statements 1 to 8.
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